War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".