Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
